I find myself increasingly drawn to people who can peer through the hype surrounding the evolution of technology with a good dose of common sense. Tim Bray is one of those people. So is Mark Cuban (cofounder of broadcast.com and current owner of Landmark Theatres and the Dallas Mavericks basketball team).
Mark has a nice post in his blog about the future of podcasting – worth a quick read:
Finally, when those formally known as podcasters do an accounting of the net dollars they earned and compare it to the time they invested, they will realize they made about 17 cents per hour all in.
All that will be left of profit motivated individual podcasters will be the few and far between and probably less than half of a percent of all podcasters (and please don’t anyone post a comment saying…if there are a million podcasters, 1 pct is 10k, half of that is 5k. That’s a ton. I’m making up these numbers to prove a point, not to be literal…Ok?).
And like personal blogs, tens of thousands if not more will stay on as labors of love that we enjoy because of their creativity.
So in about 3 years, the Podcast phenomena will have run its course and will just be a normal part of the digital media landscape.